Corrections and Parole Forecasts
COMMITTEE ON LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL
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10:46 AM -- Corrections and Parole Forecasts
Marc Carey, Legislative Council Staff, presented the adult prison inmate and division of youth corrections population forecasts. He explained that the growth in the adult prison inmate population has slowed, noting that males peaked in population in June 2009 and females in October of 2008. He stated that if this trend continues, it would reflect a five percent overall decline. However, Mr. Carey mentioned that the male prison population has risen for December. Through 2012, the adult inmate population is expected to fall about 2.1 percent annually. He directed the committee to the chart on page 56 comparing the adult inmate population forecasts from December 2008 and 2009. He talked about recent legislation, including House Bill 1351, and the impacts it has had on the inmate population. He said an average of 50 inmates per month have been released that would have not been. Mr. Carey discussed the parole forecast on page 57 and historical trends. He explained that since September, 391 parolees have been released from parole which reflects an overall decrease of 171 parolees when new parolees are taken into account.
Mr. Carey discussed the youth corrections population. The commitment population will increase slightly from an average daily population of 1,228 in FY 2008-09 to 1,232 in FY 2009-10. By FY 2011-12, the commitment population will fall slightly to 1,222. He explained that the parole population will increase from 435 in FY 2008-09 to 437 in FY 2009-10 before falling to 430 in FY 2011-12. Mr. Carey pointed out the chart on page 63 that compares this year with last year's forecast.