Date: 08/25/2014
Final
Coupled Weather Wildland Fire Behavior Prediction Technology
WILDFIRE MATTERS REVIEW COMMITTEE
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11:42 AM -- Coupled Weather Wildland Fire Behavior Prediction Technology
Mr. William P. Mahoney, III, Deputy Director for the Research Applications Laboratory at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and Dr. Janice Coen, Lead Scientist on Wildland Fire Behavior Research for NCAR, made a presentation entitled Coupled Weather Wildland Fire Behavior Prediction Technology. Committee members received a packet of presentation slides (Attachment C), and a brochure on coupled-weather fire modeling (Attachment D), both prepared by NCAR. Mr. Mahoney outlined the work of NCAR in the area of weather wildfire modeling, and provided an overview of the role of weather in wildfire risk and exacerbation. Dr. Coen discussed the science of wildfire modeling. She narrated video animations showing the impact of winds on the High Park and Yarnell Hill Fires.
140825 AttachC.pdf 
140825 AttachD.pdf
11:56 AM
Dr. Coen explained how wildfire weather modeling is verified through testing, and forecasting challenges for long-term wildfires. Dr. Coen discussed the use of satellite images of initial fire conditions to predict the arc of a wildfire event. Mr. Mahoney discussed the potential for using weather-wildfire modeling technology to assist with emergency wildland fire response and management.
12:08 PM
Dr. Coen responded to questions regarding the challenges of weather to conducting prescribed burns while maintaining air quality, and availability of coupled weather wildland fire behavior prediction technology to fire districts and managers. Discussion ensued regarding the optimum time to begin combatting a wildfire. Dr. Coen responded to questions about using the referenced technology to predict future wildfires as well as the behavior of wildfires already underway, and whether the technology has been used to predict the behavior of an active wildfire. Discussion ensued regarding the types of technology used in wildfire modeling, and the financial resources required to make coupled weather wildland fire modeling a practical tool.
12:22 PM
Mr. Mahoney responded to questions regarding the quantitative benefits of coupled weather wildland fire modeling technology, and private-sector interest in this technology. Discussion ensued regarding the impact of wildfires on climate change.
12:28 PM
The committee recessed.