Final
STAFF SUMMARY OF MEETING

COMMITTEE ON JOINT EDUCATION

Date:02/15/2012
ATTENDANCE
Time:07:44 AM to 08:32 AM
Beezley
Hamner
Place:HCR 0112
Heath
Holbert
This Meeting was called to order by
Hudak
Senator Bacon
Johnston
Joshi
This Report was prepared by
Kerr A.
Kristen Johnson
King K.
Murray
Peniston
Ramirez
Renfroe
Schafer S.
Solano
Spence
Summers
Todd
Bacon
Massey
X = Present, E = Excused, A = Absent, * = Present after roll call
Bills Addressed: Action Taken:
Presentation from the State Demography Office-


07:44 AM -- Presentation from the State Demography Office

Senator Bacon, Chair, made opening remarks and welcomed Cindy DeGroen, State Demography Office, to the table to present information concerning Colorado's population and demographic trends. Ms. DeGroen distributed a handout to the committee (Attachment A).

JtEd0215AttachA.pdf















Ms. DeGroen discussed Colorado's current demographic profile, stating that Colorado is the ninth fastest growing state in the U.S., with a 16.9 percent growth rate from 2000 to 2010; the overall U.S. growth rate was 9.7 percent over the same time period. Within Colorado, between 2000 and 2010, Douglas County grew the fastest at 4.8 percent, and Cheyenne County lost the largest share of population at a -1.9 percent growth rate. She stated that the Denver metropolitan area, which consists of seven counties, has an estimated 2010 population of 2.8 million, or 55.4 percent of the total state population. She said that the U.S. and Colorado are growing older, stating that the last of the baby boomer population turned 46 in 2010, and that the first wave of baby boomers turned 65 in 2010. In 2010, the median age in Colorado reached 36.1, compared to the National median age of 37.2. She stated that between 2000 and 2010, every age group in Colorado experienced an increase in population with the exception of persons aged 35-44 years. She added that the median age of Coloradans is expected to increase to 37.8 by the year 2040, with the share of the population over age 65 increasing from 11 percent in 2010, to 18 percent in 2040.

Senator Bacon asked if the presentation includes information on tax revenue predictions. Ms. DeGroen stated that the presentation does not, but that the State Demography Office researches that information. She directed the members to the office's website: http://colorado.gov/demography.

Ms. DeGroen continued, saying that two counties in Colorado, Conejos and Costilla counties, had a population that was more than 50 percent minority in 2010. She stated that 14 Colorado counties had a population that was a majority minority in the populations aged 5 to 17 years, and that these counties are mainly in Southern Colorado and in several Front Range counties. She stated that the Hispanic population was the only race and ethnic group in Colorado where the under age 18 population grew faster than the 18 years and older age group; at 44 percent and 39.3 percent, respectively. She stated that the white non-Hispanic population under age 18 declined by 9,000 people between 2000 and 2010. Hispanics, Colorado's primary minority group, increased by 41 percent over the decade, where the total Colorado population increase was 16.9 percent; the total Hispanic population in the state is just over one million people. The white non-Hispanic share of the total population decreased from 74.5 percent to 70 percent, and there was a small increase in the share of the African American and Asian populations to 3.8 and 2.8 percent, respectively. She said that it is expected that the share of minorities in Colorado will increase from 29 percent in 2010, to 43 percent in 2040. She added that diversity in Colorado is most significant among the younger populations.

She discussed the changes in student populations.


07:56 AM

Senator Heath asked if Douglas County will continue to grow in the area of student-aged populations. Ms. DeGroen responded that yes, it will, but not to the extent that those populations in other counties are expected to grow. Senator Bacon clarified that the significant growth in Douglas County will be in the populations over age 17 years. Ms. DeGroen affirmed his statement.

Ms. DeGroen continued her presentation, referring to a graph included in her handout (Attachment A) which depicts Colorado new jobs and net migration. She stated that in 2010 the state was still seeing in-migration due to Colorado's relatively low unemployment rate compared to the rest of the country. She stated that Colorado also has "fun employment" where in-migrants who are unemployed come to and stay in Colorado for the lifestyle. She stated that, based on predictions that Colorado will not be growing as large of an internal workforce as in the past, the state will need to attract workers from other states to meet our labor demands. She stated that one million people in Colorado will be retiring from the labor force over the next 20 years. She added that the Denver metropolitan area ranked number one from 2006 through 2009 in attracting young adults.








Senator Hudak asked if the older retirement age trend was factored into the predictions regarding the workforce. Ms. DeGroen responded that yes, the predictions take older retirement age trends into account.

Senator Heath asked if the lack of labor supply to meet workforce demands has to do with Colorado not "growing its own." Ms. DeGroen responded that the prediction is purely population driven.


08:04 AM

Ms. DeGroen continued, discussing the percentage of Colorado children who are living in poverty. She stated that the number of households with children under 18 receiving Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits increased by more than 60 percent between 2006 and 2010. She stated that an estimated 53,000 Colorado children were living with an unemployed parent during 2010, an increase of 75 percent from the number of children living with an unemployed parent during 2006.

Senator Hudak asked clarifying questions. Ms. DeGroen stated that the federal poverty level is far below the cut off for being eligible for the federal free and reduced price lunch program. She stated that the office identifies children as living in poverty if their family is at or below the federal poverty level.

Representative Todd commented about drawing correlations between this information and literacy. She commented that when children are growing up in poverty, books are not going to be at the forefront of purchases made in that household. She added that the number of Colorado children living in poverty is alarming.


08:09 AM

Ms. DeGroen continued with her presentation, saying that the total Colorado population is forecast to grow 1.6 percent per year over the next five years, and increasing to 1.8 percent per year before the end of the decade, resulting in a total population of just over 7 million by 2030. She added that the majority of Colorado's population will continue to reside along the Front Range, with both the Western Slope and the Central Mountains increasing their share of the state's population.

Representative Massey referenced the chart, Share of Colorado Population, from the handout (Attachment A), and stated that he sees a significant increase in the over age 65 group and believes there will be a dip in personal income tax revenue as those over age 65 exit the workforce.

Ms. DeGroen continued, saying that by 2030, Colorado's population over age 65 will be 150 percent larger than it was in 2010, growing from 540,000 to 1,350,000, just from aging. Colorado's population over age 65 was 330,000 in 1990. She stated that Colorado has historically never had a large share of people over age 65; Colorado was ranked fifth lowest nationally in share of population over age 65 in 2010.

Ms. DeGroen discussed the make-up of households in Colorado, stating that the share of children living in a married couple family household declined from 76 percent in 2000 to 70 percent of all households with children in 2010. The largest growth in households has been the non-family household, which grew at 24 percent, compared to 16 percent growth for family households. She stated that, in 2010, 28 percent of Colorado's population lived alone; 28 percent of Colorado's population over the age of 65 lived alone, while 37 percent of females living alone were over the age of 65. She added that changes in household size will result in an increased demand for housing units.








08:18 AM

Ms. DeGroen continued her presentation, stating that Colorado is at the beginning of a time period when we will start to see a significant change in the 65+ population. She said that the fastest growth in the 65+ population will be during this next decade, 2012-2022. She stated that the big question is whether or not this population group will stay in Colorado.

Representative Peniston asked if there is a significant enough amount of children living in same-sex households to show up in the study. Ms. DeGroen stated that the data is available, but that it was not included in her presentation. She referred the committee to the American Community Survey, conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, which she stated would have that information.

Ms. DeGroen concluded her presentation, saying that baby boomers are currently 37 percent of the labor force and that approximately one million workers will be aging out of the labor force over the next 20 years. She added that these trends will increase the demand for services in several industries.


08:30 AM

Senator Bacon thanked Ms. DeGroen for presenting, commenting that she provided a lot good information that will serve as food for thought for the members as they consider legislation.

The committee adjourned.